The thing about history is that there is a lot of it. And prehistory, well, so much more.
- carbon/methane sequestration
- 50mya seas and temperatures
- Return of the wooly mammoth
- Arctic resources
- Emigration for the next 1,000 years
- O Canada
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
> At least since 1997, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum has become a focal point of considerable geoscience research because it probably provides the best past analog by which to understand impacts of global climate warming and of massive carbon input to the ocean and atmosphere, including ocean acidification. Although it is now widely accepted that the PETM represents a "case study" for global warming and massive carbon input to Earth's surface, the cause, details and overall significance of the event remain perplexing. - Wikipedia
Around 50-60 million years ago there was a thermal maximum which is essentially the hottest the earth became most recently, with other significant heating events at around 500, 400, 300, and 250mya.
Earth an Ice Planet
Around 700mya the earth somehow began a massive erosional event that is presumed to be what is known as snowball earth. Basically Hoth.
Emigration for the next 1,000 years
Provided that things result as expected, and also that it is possible to consider a 1,000 year timescale for a family -- which is certainly possible when reviewing some of the world's oldest companies. Many of the oldest companies are local and family-owned. The question becomes, where should local be located, given the above?
First, those countries whose temperature will become unlivable (which ultimately may be most), should be jettisoned. Low-lying, densely populated, ocean-dependent, and equatorial/tropical countries are particularly at risk (especially if several of these factors are combined). Granted, the worsening conditions will take some time to unfold, but the establishment of a new locale should be done within the existing generation.
Inheritence, primogeniture, and the inability to break up a dynasty... World's oldest companies, why so many are in Japan...
See Harari's book Sapiens
See also the book on Russia...
The original formulation of Zipf's law was based on naturally occurring word frequencies and their rank order in a given English language corpus. For one example, merely 135 words accounted for 50% of the total word frequencies. This could be extended to phrases as well. For foreign language learners, this means that there is some limited set of words and phrases which account for a large percentage of word and phrase occurrences.
(Unfortunately these frequency lists are usually based on corpuses which have little to do with the task of learning, that is actually useful/usable words based on frequency of practical, everyday use -- that is, a verbal corpus.)
Nevertheless, provided with an effective list, if we leverage the mnemonic tools previously discussed, we can spend time to create a set of entry level learning tools which will be extremely relevant (and therefore worth the time in creating).
Suggested Techniques for Second Language Acquisition
For given words and phrases identified
- Phonemic imagery
- Iconic images (simple drawings)
- Canonical script, including for alphabet
- Town language Roman room mnemonic, extended as a metaphor via the Pattern Language of Christopher Alexander (at the level of vocabulary, and eventually as grammar)
10 trillion galaxies times 100 billion stars. One trillion squared. That's what we are talking about. In addition, the universe is possibly 250 times larger than the observable universe. Mind boggling.
First Observed Interstellar Object
'Oumuamua is possibly a lightsail object sent for observation, and in any case is definitely from outside the solar system (from another solar system altogether).
> Last year, the first unambiguously interstellar object, 'Oumuamua, flew through our Solar System, delighting and amazing astronomers worldwide. Coming in at a steep angle with an incredibly large speed and a bizarre, cigar-like shape, it must have originated far away and long ago, most likely from a distant star system.
I am a great fan of Maria Montessori and her ideas about education. This page are some thoughts and links.
First we have the core pedagogy. Then we have the actual learning environment, tools, tasks, etc. Third, we have montessori training of teachers. Fourth, we have the actual 6-12 grades (which Montessori herself did not produce). Finally what would this look like in terms of higher education, both academic and professional. And Ultimately what does this look like in terms of ongoing professional development.
- Montessori Teacher Training Thailand
- Online Montessori Training
Note that Montessori has the same problem as TEFL where there are many online courses that have a wide variety of prices, and obviously some of them are simply inadequate, and others are rapaciously priced and overkill.
- Research shows benefits of Montessori education - The Guardian 29-Sep-2006
Wow, very interesting. If the past helps us understand the present, and help informed decisions on the future, then this work is an important one, and a fascinating read. There is an amalgam of different aspects, which do not hold together as well as some of Diamond's other works, but is interesting nonetheless. How people in traditional societies find/raise food, eat, raise children, comforted the aged, as well as wage war, are covered in this work.
Sections on "constructive paranoia" and bilingualism (and language extinction), as well as chapter 11 on "salt, sugar, fat, and sloth" are definitely a wake-up call to dangerous trends in America. In addition, the chapters on civil society "justice" vs. the more "conflict resolution" mechanisms in traditional societies is quite insightful.
Missing from this is a more extended discussion of marriage and gender relations, though certainly there is much of this sprinkled throughout the work.
In any case, one of the best works I've read this year (as of August, 2019). The book was published in 2012 but has certainly aged well (if at all) in the past 7 years. Highly relevant and an entertaining read.
Diamond has certain preferences regarding what we can learn from traditional societies, based on his fifty years of learning about them. Some takeaways:
- Crib bilingualism as a prophyactic against alzheimers - Children cry half as much if picked up/comforted immediately upon the start of crying, vs. the Dutch and German tactics of ignoring the child some of the time - Nuclear families tend to not function well as child caretaking/rearing, but rather extended families and a variety of "allo-parents" in terms of neighbors and villagers. - On demand nursing is common in traditional societies (for various reasons) - A lot more infant-adult contact (and being carried, as humans are "carry animals") - Physical punishment is common in some societies and uncommon in others, and probably doesn't work very well - Multi-age playgroups are a good thing (aka Montessori style and even more extended) - Child play and education are entwined, and the current mass manufactured toys and video game play makes children less creative, by certain measures - Children in traditional societies are generally more emotionally secure, self-confident, curious, and autonomous based in some part on greater freedom (and certainly some forms of greater constraint, e.g., living with little privacy) - There is wisdom in older people (story of a harrowing boat ride and talk with someone who avoided that boat and the captain as they looked young, foolish, and with a powerful motor) - Minority languages are not harmful but helpful in terms of bilingualism, and could and should be supported by governments and in schools - Salt, sugar, fat, and sloth are killers and are increasingly so
I watched most of the latest long video presentation done in Australia a few days ago, which is 90% boring, and 10% mind-blowing. The main point is that they are going to focus on BFR which is way bigger than Falcon Heavy. Techcrunch has more details on the project.
Mars Launch Dates
Note that the manned launches to Mars will be in 2024, with unmanned in 2022. Also, the precision they have with the engines for recovery landing will be able to match commercial airline landing success rates, and essentially land the rockets back on their launching pads. It's all pretty awesome at this point.
Falcon Heavy and BFR Capacity and Routes
Falcon Heavy which will launch next year can put 30 tons into low earth orbit, and BFR will do 150 tons. Oh, and BFR will be able to do Moon landings and relaunches.
Regarding the cost of using BFR for Earth-to-Earth destinations, cost for a seat on the Earth BFR express should be about the same as full fare economy on most airlines today (via TechCrunch).
Now that my eldest son is 3 years old, there may be some changes to his schedule (he still takes a nap most days, but he is staying up past his traditional bedtime, so this became a question for me: How much sleep is enough?
Well, there is a range of answers, depending on ages, such as:
Age group | Recommended amount of sleep
--------------- | ---------------------------
Newborns | 14 to 17 hours a day
12 months | About 10 hours at night, plus 4 hours of naps
2 years | About 11 to 12 hours at night, plus a 1- to 2-hour afternoon nap
3 to 5 years | 10 to 13 hours
6 to 13 years | 9 to 11 hours
14 to 17 years | 8 to 10 hours
Adults | 7 to 9 hours
*Note that there are differences in particular circumstances such as illness, pregnancy, and the like.
With teeth and teeth brushing comes the need to sleep through the night, or at least change the nighttime feeding into nighttime watering. Turns out that this happens about the same time as toothbrushing should, or somewhat thereafter.
We are entering the zone of the final few months of the baby's first year. At 10 months, kicking dad throughout the night has gotten a bit old. So it is time to make several changes:
- Nighttime weaning
- More and better tooth brushing
The question is the correct method and also sequencing. Probably the most traumatizing should come first.
> There will be sleeping enough in the grave. --Benjamin Franklin
Polyphasic Sleep is when sleep occurs at more than one point in the 24-hour cycle. Otherwise known as napping, it is possible to shorten the length of sleep for all sleep periods and end up with less time overall spent sleeping. The reason this is possible, is that the sleep periods (theoretically) become more efficient in delivering the kind of sleep needed for restfulness. Power-napping is another term for this, but the power part comes from a compression of sleep stages.
Some people are able to supposedly get by on 3 hours of sleep this way, and it has been ascribed to such people as Thomas Edison and Winston Churchill among others.
Benefits of Sleeping Less and More Often
The purported benefits besides an increase in available time (quantity) include as well quality indicators such as increased alertness, creativity and health. However these benefits have been (somewhat) debunked on Supermemo. The main issue that they take with this practice is that sleep deprivation is necessary in order to entrain one's sleep pattern.
This is obviously true... Or is it? If my current sleep pattern is not actually natural (quite a bit of historical as well as EEG evidence that humans are naturally diphasic).
The rather heroic Uberman sleep schedule, which is 20-30 minutes of sleep every four hours, is not something I am going to try for. I don't need that much of a change and also, there doesn't seem to be much room for error there regarding the actual function of sleep. Instead, all I need to do as a result is one more hour of productivity without any loss of energy/alertness, etc. I intend to do more reading and more exercise during this time bonus, if and when it arrives.
Five Interval Sleep Phase
My initial experiment (beginning 11-AUG-2012) will be one hour sleep periods five times per day, at approximately:
This fits my schedule which is fairly flexible, but needs a 4am wakeup for early morning running, a 10am-12pm classes and 3pm meetings several times per week. This also allows me to have an early dinner (at 5pm) or late dinner (7pm+), and not need to sleep at night until 11pm. Also this would allow me to do a late night dancing from midnight to 3am (which my current monophasic sleep does not allow).
Updates on Sleep Experiment
Day 1: Took the naps during the day, and had more energy, but got tired (as always) later in the evening. Slept from 11pm-4am. Which means I had 8 hours of sleep (which is more than I usually do). Therefore slept more, ate more, and had more energy.
Day 2: Similar to day 1. Took naps (the 2pm was difficult, only 30 minutes and got back up). Instead of the 6pm nap, went for a two hour Thai massage. Then to bed at 10:30pm. Heard the 1am alarm but ignored it. Heard the 3am alarm (to nap again), thought of getting up, but didn't. Heard the 4am alarm and then stayed in bed. Got up at 5am for the run. This mean 8.5 hours of sleep. Even more!
Day 3: ...
Conclusion on Sleep
I've learned this isn't going to work out, I am sleeping more, not less. And there are times I put off the nap, can't get to sleep, can't wake up easily, and also the habit of sleeping through much of the night. However, my awareness of sleep and its effect has dramatically increased. There are some studies which conclude that modern man is basically sleep-deprived and this has disastrous effects regarding accident rates, attention in the workplace, not to mention basic physical well-being.
I've come to realize, especially at my advancing age in the upper 40s, that sleep and naps should be grabbed at every reasonable opportunity.
When one wants to understand what the most sigificant digits are regarding courses of action, it is vital to have the appropriate time-scale. What can be done in 1 day is a much more constrained problem than one can be done in 1 year, 10 years, 1,000 years, etc. Ten million years is sufficiently large to rethink pretty much everything. As Peter Brannan writes in The Anthropocene is a Joke:
Unless we fast learn how to endure on this planet, and on a scale far beyond anything we’ve yet proved ourselves capable of, the detritus of civilization will be quickly devoured by the maw of deep time.